{"id":14519,"date":"2020-05-12T15:15:08","date_gmt":"2020-05-12T19:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/?p=14519"},"modified":"2020-05-17T23:33:36","modified_gmt":"2020-05-18T03:33:36","slug":"covid-19-what-needs-to-happen-before-a-pandemic-is-declared-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/covid-19-what-needs-to-happen-before-a-pandemic-is-declared-over\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19: What needs to happen before a pandemic is declared over?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>TORONTO &#8212;<br \/>\n\tWhen will the COVID-19 pandemic be declared over?<\/p>\n<p>\n\tOf all the questions surrounding the unprecedented spread of the novel coronavirus, this one remains the most pervasive\u2014and, unfortunately, the hardest to answer.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWith more than 70,000 cases and 5,000 deaths in Canada alone, the threat of COVID-19 remains quite real. Yet, as some provinces begin to ease restrictions and prepare for some semblance of normalcy, the complexity of the question grows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/newsletters\/the-covid19-brief-newsletter-signup?fbclid=IwAR1YGBHLyJNN1IQRrvi1Oc236PXQ2i6yN3g_ORzTaYdfm1_-UwD5XUj-Kj4\"><strong>Newsletter sign-up: Get The COVID-19 Brief sent to your inbox<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\tHow will the loosening of these restrictions affect infection rates and community transmission and how will the virus change as more people are exposed, are just two of the unknowns facing public health officials.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>HOW IS A PANDEMIC DECLARED?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tUnderstanding how a pandemic might end begins with understanding how it\u2019s declared in the first place.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/health\/coronavirus\/canadians-have-been-told-to-stay-home-during-the-pandemic-are-we-listening-1.4912468\">March 11<\/a>. But the move was largely superficial, indicating that the disease is not containable within a specific region or regions.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe highest declaration level in an infectious disease outbreak is called a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/ihr\/procedures\/pheic\/en\/\"> \u201cpublic health emergency of international concern (PHEIC),\u201d<\/a> which the WHO declared on Jan. 30. In order to make that declaration, the WHO emergency committee considers four key questions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tis the public health impact of the event serious;<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tis this an unusual or unexpected event;<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tis there risk for international spread;<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tand is there a significant risk for international travel or trade risk?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\tIn a statement to CTVNews.ca, a WHO spokesperson said the emergency committee convenes regularly to advise the WHO if the outbreak still constitutes the PHEIC.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tDuring the 2009 H1N1 swine flu outbreak, the most recent pandemic in history, the health authority released a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/disease\/swineflu\/phase\/en\/\">\u201cpandemic phases<\/a>\u201d framework outlining the characteristics of the outbreak, including signs of the \u201cpost-pandemic\u201d phase. However, the WHO says this phasing system is no longer in use.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cFor resolution of this, those four major questions should be resolved,\u201d Dr. Kieran Moore, medical officer of health at KFL&#038;A Public Health in Kingston, Ont., told CTVNews.ca by phone Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cWe\u2019re not there yet. There are still a lot of unknowns.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>\u2018AS LONG AS THERE IS COMMUNITY TRANSFER, THE REALITIES CONTINUE\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tBeyond the official declaration of pandemic status, experts say the true end of the pandemic will come with a significant decrease in transmissions or the development of an effective vaccine.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cThe pandemic will be considered &#8216;ended\u2019 when there are only occasional traces of localized cases that are quickly contained in specific locations,\u201d Tom Koch, professor with the University of British Columbia\u2019s Department of Geography, told CTVNews.ca by phone Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cThese very localized outbreaks will be quickly contact traced and treated with both clinical care and contact-tracing to assure spread is limited.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBut, as Koch notes, as long as there is community transmission the current reality remains.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tFrom a Canadian perspective, isolated outbreaks in cities and provinces will make it more difficult to declare the pandemic over nationally. For example, Vancouver might find itself relatively free from spread earlier than Montreal, the epicentre of the Canadian outbreak.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cIn a city like Vancouver, if gradual easing works without a significant increase in cases the local outbreaks will be called \u2018controlled,\u2019\u201d explained Koch.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cBut the provincial epidemic will not be ended until one can show all communities are visited only by very isolated cases that can be understood and treated without further transfer.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN NEXT?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n\tHistorically pandemics have seen their end both medically\u2014via herd immunity or immunizations\u2014and socially, when populations declare the pandemic over themselves by forgoing restrictions.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tBut experts say it\u2019s still too early to predict how quickly either scenario may play out.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAlthough the rate of infection may seem high, Moore warns that only a small percentage of the population has actually been exposed to the virus.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIn other words, we have a long road ahead before achieving the herd immunity experts say will provide some respite from the spread of the disease. And as restrictions are loosened, community transmissions will continue.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cWe\u2019ve always described this not as a sprint, but a marathon,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cWe will probably go through our first wave, second waves, third waves and fourth waves. And we will have to learn from them each time on how we can improve and protect our population until we get a treatment, an immunization, or population immunity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWhile there are several clinical trials underway for potential COVID-19 vaccinations, Moore notes that we are still a long way from deploying an effective vaccine and one that will stand the test of time as the virus changes.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tWhen it comes to the societal role of the pandemic, Moore notes that while it\u2019s important we take measures to slowly open the economy, we\u2019re nowhere near to \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d quite yet.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cWhat we\u2019re trying to figure out is what the acceptable new normal for our society will be,\u201d he said, noting that Canadians should expect to maintain physical distance and remain vigilant about best practices such as hand washing and mask wearing for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\u201cWe really have to do this in a slow and measured way.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/health\/coronavirus\/when-and-how-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end-1.4936086\" class=\"button purchase\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TORONTO &#8212; When will the COVID-19 pandemic be declared over? Of all the questions surrounding the unprecedented spread of the novel coronavirus, this one remains the most pervasive\u2014and, unfortunately, the hardest to answer. With more than 70,000 cases and 5,000 deaths in Canada alone, the threat of COVID-19 remains quite real. Yet, as some provinces&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[120,162,161,157],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14519"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14519"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14519\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15283,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14519\/revisions\/15283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}