{"id":13470,"date":"2020-05-01T13:35:11","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T17:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/?p=13470"},"modified":"2020-05-19T11:24:16","modified_gmt":"2020-05-19T15:24:16","slug":"coronavirus-may-last-2-years-study-warns-and-its-second-wave-could-be-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/coronavirus-may-last-2-years-study-warns-and-its-second-wave-could-be-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus may last 2 years, study warns. And its second wave could be worse."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dennis Wagner<\/a>, USA TODAY<\/span>
\n Published 1:28 p.m. ET May 1, 2020 | Updated 2:26 p.m. ET May 1, 2020<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/section>\n

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When will it hit and what will it look like? Those are just a few unanswered questions about a possible second wave of COVID-19.<\/p>\n

USA TODAY<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

If COVID-19 follows a pattern set by the 1918 Spanish flu, the pandemic is likely to last up to two years and return with a vengeance this fall and winter \u2013 a second wave worse than the first, according to a study issued from\u00a0the University of Minnesota<\/a>.<\/p>\n

“States, territories and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario,” warns the report out of the university’s\u00a0Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, “including no vaccine availability or herd immunity.”<\/p>\n

“Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease,” the authors suggest.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The study team, headed by Dr. Kristine A. Moore, medical director at the University of Minnesota center, included\u00a0pandemic experts from Harvard and Tulane universities.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Antibody tests were supposed to help guide reopening plans. <\/strong>They’ve brought more confusion than clarity amid coronavirus.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

In a preface to the report, researchers said they are striving to produce critical and timely information “with straight talk and clarity.”<\/p>\n

The worst-case\u00a0scenario \u2013\u00a0with a major resurgence by year’s end \u2013\u00a0is one of three laid out in the paper.<\/p>\n

A second possibility suggests the outbreak this year\u00a0could be followed by a series of smaller waves into 2021.<\/p>\n

And a third scenario, not seen in previous pandemics, would feature a “slow burn” of viral transmission with no clear pattern.<\/p>\n

“The virus caught the global community off guard, and its future course is still highly unpredictable,” says the report. “There is no crystal ball to tell us what the future holds and what the ‘end game’ for controlling this pandemic will be.”<\/p>\n

However, it stresses,\u00a0a COVID-19 vaccine is not likely to be available until 2021. And, because up to a\u00a0quarter of those infected may have no symptoms \u2013 and others spread the disease for days before feeling ill \u2013\u00a0historic influenza pandemics provide the best model.<\/p>\n

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Second wave: <\/strong>When will it hit, and what will it look like?<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Because humans don’t have natural immunity and the virus is so easily transmitted, up to 70%\u00a0of the population may have to develop immunity before COVID-19’s\u00a0spread diminishes naturally. That means the pandemic length “will likely be 18 to 24 months,” and the virus will remain endemic afterward.<\/p>\n

The worst-case scenario \u2013\u00a0a more lethal resurgence this fall and winter \u2013 is based on the Spanish flu outbreak a century ago, when a small wave hit in early 1918, followed by a huge spike that fall\u00a0and a third major wave\u00a0in early 1919.<\/p>\n

Studies suggest\u00a0social distancing measures had worked<\/a>\u00a0against the 1918 epidemic until they were hastily lifted by some cities, like Denver, in early celebrations. Instead of continuing to \u201cflatten the curve,\u201d these cities experienced a second spike in cases.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of the confusion, in general, is premised on the misunderstanding that if you control the epidemic once, then you\u2019re done,\u201d Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told the USA TODAY Editorial Board last month<\/a>. \u201cThere\u2019s no reason to think that.\u201d<\/p>\n

The researchers urged government agencies and officials\u00a0to gird for resurgences\u00a0and develop triggers for re-instituting mitigation measures so health care systems won’t once again be overwhelmed.<\/p>\n

Contributing: Adrianna Rodriguez, USA TODAY.<\/em><\/p>\n

Fact Check: <\/strong>Herd immunity would not fully stop the spread of coronavirus<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Antibody tests: <\/strong>They\u00a0could be key to reopening the country. Here’s how they work.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Read or Share this story: https:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/health\/2020\/05\/01\/coronavirus-wont-end-2-years-worse-second-wave-study-warns\/3064708001\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dennis Wagner, USA TODAY Published 1:28 p.m. ET May 1, 2020 | Updated 2:26 p.m. ET May 1, 2020CLOSE When will it hit and what will it look like? Those are just a few unanswered questions about a possible second wave of COVID-19. USA TODAYIf COVID-19 follows a pattern set by the 1918 Spanish flu,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[120,162,161,157],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13470"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13470"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13470\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15820,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13470\/revisions\/15820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airpurifierspecialist.com\/store\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}