The Middlesex-London Health Unit (MLHU) has reported 17 new COVID-19 cases in the London region, bringing the total number of cases in the area to 323.

The new cases come as updated models from the province suggest the community spread of the virus appears to have peaked earlier than anticipated in Ontario.

However, public health officials said that in order to ensure the best possible outcome, people must “stay the course.” 

“This is not the time to relax our intense public health measures and physical distancing,” said Dr. Chris Mackie, the medical officer of health with the MLHU. “We’re still in the midst of our pandemic wave whether the peak has passed or not.”

“We still have a significant amount of coronavirus in the community, so please continue to be vigilant,” Dr. Mackie warned. 

According to the latest data from the province, if physical distancing measures remain in place, the total number of cases in Ontario for this wave of the outbreak is likely less than 20,000, a number significantly lower than the worst-case scenario predicted at the beginning of the month of 300,000 cases. 

Despite an increase in testing, during the past few days the percentage of positive cases in the province has dropped and has held steady around five and six per cent, a finding that is fairly reassuring, Dr. Mackie said.

But while the community spread seems to have peaked, the scenario is different at the province’s long-term care homes.

“We’re very much seeing the pandemic move intensely into those long-term care facilities and retirement homes … and we’re doing everything possible to support these [facilities] that are really bearing the brunt of this pandemic right now,” Dr. Mackie said.

Currently, there are 51 cases linked to long-term care facilities, 29 linked to retirement homes and at least nine facilities with outbreaks in the London region.

The deaths in these facilities have been ramping up with five new fatalities since Saturday.

The latest deaths include one man in his 70s and another in his 90s from a long-term care home, bringing the death toll to 22.

“Deaths are a lagging indicator [of when the epidemic has reached its highest point],” Dr. Mackie said, adding that while cases may have peaked, the deaths in the region won’t be reflected until two weeks after.  

When will life go back to normal? 

While the new modelling suggests the province’s efforts of physical distancing have worked, officials say it’s unclear as to when life will resume the way it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. 

“We’re in the middle of this battle,” said Premier Doug Ford after the updated projections were released. “Nothing’s going to change until we see the curve continue to flatten or go down.” 

Dr. Mackie said experts are looking for clear evidence that indicates Ontario has well passed the peak and that cases have been declining for at least two weeks.

“Within the next couple of weeks we may see some of those things start to relax,” he said. “We’re still at very high disease levels and now is not the time to reduce those distancing measures or open any of those businesses that have closed.”  

“And it won’t be back to normal, certainly then or anytime in the foreseeable future,” Dr. Mackie added. “Some of those distancing measures will likely continue on for some period beyond the pandemic wave.” 

On Monday afternoon, Dr. Barbare Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health, said that when the time comes, restrictions will be lifted in a gradual way in order to carefully monitor any signs that the virus may be spreading again. 

Cases in counties surrounding London

There were no new cases to report in both Elgin and Oxford counties on Monday. The region’s case count is currently sitting at 44, and 13 of the cases have been resolved. 

Meanwhile, officials with Huron Perth Public Health reported two new cases in Stratford, bringing the total of cases in Huron-Perth to 37.

Officials in Grey Bruce said there were no new cases. The region has 63 cases to date and 20 of them have been resolved.