THUNDER BAY – Despite new modeling data showing that Ontario has likely reached the peak of community spread COVID-19 infections, health officials and the government are warning that we are not out of the woods yet and relaxing public health measures is still weeks away.

“I still think it’s too early to do any getting back to work, getting back to normal activities, because of the amount of asymptomatic cases out there,” said Dr. Stewart Kennedy, Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Centre’s COVID-19 lead.

There are currently more than 50 cases of COVID-19 in the Thunder Bay District and Kennedy said based on testing of symptomatic people, there has not been an increase of cases and the curve may be flattening.

However, new research suggests that there may be many more people infected with the virus who are asymptomatic.

“Sometimes we initially thought maybe 30 to 40 per cent of patients who had COVID-19 had no symptoms,” Kennedy said. “Now there are some reports that 60 to 80 per cent of patients who have COVID-19 are asymptomatic.”

Kennedy said more testing of asymptomatic people needs to be done before the province can say the curve is truly flattening

“We’re going in the right direction, but that’s why it’s so important to keep on with your physical distancing and staying at home because you don’t know how many in Thunder Bay have no symptoms and have COVID-19,” he said.

On a provincial level, Premier Doug Ford said while there is hope coming out of the data on Monday, the province is still a long ways away from returning to normal.

“Nothing is going to change until we see the curve continue to flatten or hopefully go down,” Ford said during his daily media briefing on Monday. “Don’t sit back on your laurels and take this for granted. We are far from over.”

On Monday, public health officials released new modeling data that shows Ontario is trending towards a best-case scenario and may have reached the peak of COVID-19 community spread.

While this offers some sense of hope and optimism, reopening the economy and relaxing public health measures too soon could quickly see those numbers start to climb again.

“I do not want to put a date on this,” Ford said. “This could bite us in the backside in about 10 seconds. It could come up with a second wave again. I’m very concerned about the flu season in the fall. There is no one out there who wants to open the economy more than I do, but we just have to hold off on this.”

Ford said reopening the economy will need to be done in stages in order to evaluate the impact and any new rise in cases.

During the release of new modeling data, public health officials warned that a peak can often be prolonged and there can still be bumps in the road. So while it is encouraging, it does not mean the pandemic is over, or even easing.

The situation in long-term care facilities, which are still seeing an ongoing increase in confirmed cases and deaths, is cause for concern and the province is working to shift healthcare resources from acute care that did not see a surge in cases to assisting these facilities.

Ford said a more detailed framework for reopening the economy will be released in the coming days, but he is advising that the only reason the province is seeing the positive trend it is in terms of community spread is because of the actions being taken by all Ontarians, who need to continue to do so for a while longer.

“The numbers clearly show that the steps we have taken as a province are working,” he said. “They are working because of you, because we have all come together, because we are taking this fight very seriously. We are throwing everything we can at it, but we can’t let our guard down. This virus remains a clear and present danger.”