KINGSTON — Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox and Addington Public Health believes the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to a close, which means the goal going forward will be to make sure the next wave is as small as possible.

There will be a second wave, medical officer of health Dr. Kieran Moore said, but it will be residents who will ultimately determine if it will be a small flareup or a firestorm. The hope is that people will keep up with social distancing measures that so successfully contained the impact of the first wave.

“What happened in Kingston was that we were prepared for a significant wave but only got about 57 members of our community who became infected. So that first wave was dulled and blunted by the combined efforts of this community, which worked very well,” Moore said.

“The problem is that this virus isn’t leaving North America; we can see that just from the news coming from the United States. This virus is going to continue to propagate in the U.S., and that is going to be an ever-present risk for everyone in Canada.”

Moore believes that the federal government should keep the border with the U.S. closed until the situation there is brought under control and that restricted travel to countries where the pandemic is contained could be allowed.

But no matter what precautions are taken, it is expected that the virus could return a number of times over the next 18 months, until either there is a vaccine or until natural herd immunity is built up.

It is very common for epidemics to come in waves. During the 1918 to 1920 Spanish flu pandemic, the second wave that came a few months after it began was more deadly than the initial wave. But Moore said it does not have to be like that this time.

“We can expect the coronavirus is going to come back into our community, but instead of having that sudden large peak of illnesses that New York City and Italy are going through, I anticipate that we will go through a number of small waves over the next year and a half,” Moore said. “During that time, we will need good public health effort and community participation to limit its spread and contain it every time it raises its head.

“It will only be controlled if everyone does their part. That is the cornerstone.”

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