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Experts worry about the rise in community-spread COVID-19 cases in Waterloo Region.
Latest News

Experts worry about the rise in community-spread COVID-19 cases in Waterloo Region.

12 May 2020 /Posted byBarbara / 482

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Jeff Outhit

By Jeff OuthitRecord Reporter

Tue., May 12, 2020timer3 min. read

WATERLOO REGION — Experts at the University of Waterloo worry about rising COVID-19 cases that are not connected to caring for the elderly.

Cases spreading in the community, outside of hard-hit nursing and retirement homes, bottomed out in mid-April but have risen steadily since. These are transmissions attributed to close contact, to being in the community, and to travel.

The numbers are small but the trend line points the wrong way. New community cases that fell to three per day in mid-April are now peaking at a dozen per day, the highest since the epidemic began.

“The trend in community cases is worrying,” said Chris Bauch, a mathematician who studies the dynamics of infectious disease. He figures “the overall upward trend in community cases over the past month looks clear enough to suggest that it is premature to relax physical distancing measures.”

Low testing in April may have masked community infections, experts say. Today, more people are being tested.

“Another explanation could be that people are not practising physical distancing as seriously as before, resulting in more new infections,” said Zahid Butt, a public health professor who studies infectious disease. “We may have to wait for a few weeks to get a clearer picture.”

Bauch sees low testing as a possible explanation “but also it suggests that community transmission is still happening somehow, somewhere.”

“It would be good to know what’s going on with the uptick in cases,” said Craig Janes, director of the School of Public Health. “Is this the result of some super-spreading events?” He said it’s hard to know without more tests and better tracing of infection contacts.

Is now the right time to relax pandemic restrictions and physical distancing ?

“I think there should be stronger evidence for a reduction of cases in the community before restrictions are relaxed in this region,” Bauch said.

“Plans to re-open schools and workplaces usually assume that cases have passed their peak due to physical distancing measures, but there is not strong evidence that the K-W region has passed the peak in community transmission.”

Butt advises a “stepwise process with low-risk areas opening first as compared to high-risk areas, with the provision that they may be closed if there a surge of new cases.”

Experts want more virus testing. The regional public health unit has expanded testing slower than the rest of Ontario, achieving only 91 per cent of the average provincial growth in tests, since April 14.

Matching the provincial rate would have meant another 2,721 tests completed locally between April 15 and May 11.

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“We need to test as widely as possible,” Janes said. Without the capacity to do so, the region should strive to test more than just vulnerable or high-risk groups, by also testing people who appear infected based on symptoms, he said.

Bauch sees high testing rates as an important factor in countries such as Germany and South Korea that have controlled their outbreaks. “So I think that higher testing rates would help in the K-W region as well, including for the wider community,” he said.

Greater testing of close contacts “could be very useful in identifying persons who are spreading the virus but not yet showing symptoms,” he said.

He recognizes that Ontario needs more laboratory capacity to achieve greater, faster testing. Without that “we have no choice but to focus testing on at-risk groups.”

Jeff Outhit

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